Fold Equity

Aaron Clark

Fold Equity is the most advanced concept that almost every beginning player is at least aware exists. Many players simply see it as picking up a pot with a steal, and drastically miscalculate the values, so this article is designed to help players not get into trouble when evaluating a situation involving fold equity. There will be a second article that will deal with the more advanced concepts of fold equity in greater detail.

Fold equity: the marginal equity gained by causing opposing players to fold by making a bet.

But what does this mean? The simplest examples are when you move all-in.

Your equity will be the Difference between the equity if all players were already all-in and your equity in the pot when you bet (all-in in this example).

If there is no chance that your opponents will fold then your FE is zero. Evaluating your FE means estimating a % chance that your opponent will fold, each possible hand your opponent may have, and your comparative equity in each scenario. In the advanced article on FE we will discuss this in more detail, but for now lets stick to the basics.

I have seen fold equity defined incorrectly as your total equity in the pot after making a bet including the equity you already have.

Since our definition includes the word marginal then it is possible to have a negative value. For example if you are either very far ahead or very far behind, and your opponent will call you when you are behind and fold when you are ahead, such as the following hand:

Blinds 50-100

Your stack: 20,000

You hold: Ah Kd and raised UTG to 300.

All players fold to the big blind who has more chips than you.

Flop:

Ac Qc 3c

Villain checks.

If you you shove your villain may fold a better hand such as AQ or possibly even a set, but will most likely call you with a flopped flush. Since you are so incredibly deep in this scenario when he does have you beat, the loss trying to induce the fold will cost you so much more than the equity gained from him folding. Against a reasonable opponent our FE for a shove here is negative.

Now what to do with this messy complicated concept?

1- Be Aggressive.

Keep in mind that being the aggressor in the pot will often win a pot you would otherwise lose. If you bet, you can take pots from opponents who have the best hand, but cannot make a call. Betting draws aggressively, for example, is a great place to pick up fold equity because even if you get called, you can still improve to the best hand. When you do, the pot will be larger than it would had you played the draw passively. Add to that the times you win a pot that you missed improvement and aggressiveness looks ideal.

2- But don’t be too aggressive.

Betting amounts that are not relative to the size of the pot will often ruin your fold equity. You may win the pot more, but by exaggerating the amounts (making it 1500 to go preflop as opposed to 500) you see that while a successful steal nets the same amount of profit from the blinds and antes, a failed steal becomes significantly more expensive. (loss of 1500 vs. loss of 500) If you are constantly betting, many players will catch on and may not give your steals credit. As always, be mindful of your image, and your opponents. Balancing FE and paot control with a marginal hand is one of the toughest skills in poker to develop and utilize.

3- Don’t overvalue fold equity.

Fold equity will vary depending on the texture of the board, the size of the pot, the players involved, your image, stack sizes, and the amount you bet. Do not over simplify this, or use it to justify bad play! Take into consideration all of the factors of the hand, not just fold equity, when attempting to use fold equity to push people off of hands.

4- Look for options.

Your opponents can utilize fold equity as well. A general rule: if you suspect your opponent of having the ability to overvalue his fold equity, let him be the one to put in the last substantial bet when you are very strong. When you are not very strong, but hold a reasonable hand you don’t intend to fold, try to be the player to put in the last substantial bet. Sometimes this means check raising, or leading small to three-bet shove. Sometimes it means min-raising or some other crazy play. Always be aware of your options, as different situations can call for different reactions and a brand new set of options.